Macro Drivers

DeciferedAI Synthesis

Live

The market is currently going up, but there are signs that people are getting a little nervous about the future. Some areas, like technology and safety, are seeing more activity. However, there are also concerns about things like oil prices and global tensions.

What happens in the market can affect people's jobs, savings, and overall financial well-being

Watch: How global events and company performances impact the market's direction will be important to keep an eye on

Economic Backdrop

Early-warning signs are showing up in consumer mood and mortgage rate. This is a condition to watch, not a signal to act.

Leading

what's coming

5.4

Elevated

Yield curve: The yield curve has a healthy positive slope

Jobless claims: Jobless claims are low, the job market looks steady

Housing starts: Homebuilding activity is holding up

Consumer mood: Consumer confidence is dropping, which usually shows up in spending later

Recession odds: Model-based recession odds are low

Mortgage rate: Mortgage rates are high, squeezing housing demand

Coincident

what's here now

3.7

Building

Job growth: Job growth is slowing versus a year ago

Retail spending: Retail spending is still growing

Factory output: Factory output is holding up

Business orders: Business orders are holding up

Confirmation

what already happened

6.4

Elevated

Unemployment rate: The unemployment rate has risen

Inflation: Inflation is still running hot

Interest rates: Policy rates are held high, keeping financial conditions tight